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Of the 22 new protocols listed on DefiLlama this week, 6 were launchpads. The number of launchpads earning fees recently hit an all-time high.

Is the recent surge in launchpads and trading apps here to stay, or will this cohort of protocols fizzle out?

Analyzing 52 DefiLlama-tracked launchpads and trading apps with at least $1m in lifetime fees, one thing stands out: 90% of them have seen weekly fees drop over 80%.

The median launchpad has round-tripped 99% of its fee peak.

Both categories are subject to onchain cyclicality which looks something like this: a narrative or catalyst creates a burst of activity and results in a flurry of fees for the protocols positioned to capture it, then it dissipates.

While several newer entrants to these categories (fomo, Pons, StonkBrokers to name a few) have not yet seen fee drawdowns of over 60%, there is no protocol in this dataset with a multi-quarter track record that hasn't seen an 80%+ fee drawdown at some point.

Even the most durable category leaders are down 85% from their ATH fee weeks, but are still earning: Pumpfun earns $6m in weekly revenue and Axiom earns $5m. Both gave back a euphoric spike but have captured enough market share to remain successful.

What this means:

The latest narrative event was kicked off by the launch of Robinhood Chain, creating a frenzy of new launchpads. While trading apps mostly live on Solana, 11% of all launchpads now live on Robinhood Chain.

TradFi's closest analogs, brokerages and sportsbooks, are more resilient because of stronger retention through repeatable usage and broad offerings.

This is not because their businesses are less speculative. Robinhood and DraftKings both serve customers who keep coming back across different cycles, whereas launchpad users are largely one-off. Narrative-chasing traders tend to rotate to whatever app is launching successful memes. It’s much easier to rotate apps than it is to switch platforms that require bank connections, KYC and wire deposits.

Even Coinbase, which has the most direct crypto cycle exposure, never lost more than 43% of peak revenue (and has since recovered materially). TradFi trading apps and sportsbooks see seasonal revenue drawdowns, but the more diversified brokers (Interactive Brokers) and broad sportsbook operators (Flutter) are the least cyclical.

Robinhood’s multi-service platform allows users to show up and trade what’s hot: commodities, prediction markets, equities and crypto. DraftKings is used to bet on all sports, not just one. At this time, most launchpads are one-dimensional: activity explodes during meme szn but collapses when the music stops.

While total DeFi TVL has remained flat, Monad & Robinhood Chain have seen strong TVL growth over the last 7 & 30 days, both hitting an all-time high.

The same protocol is behind TVL growth on both chains: Morpho.

Morpho’s growth, adding $65m & $58m to Monad & Robinhood Chain TVL, is happening two different ways with one commonality:

The commonality: incentives.

Morpho’s vaults are clearly a compelling product. A growing list of exchanges, wallets, consumer apps and asset curators are increasing deposits on the protocol.

However, ending incentives programs can cause capital to leave as quickly as it arrived. While Morpho’s total incentive spend is decreasing, other protocols and integrations are footing the bill to increase distribution.

To prevent a drawdown in active loans, Morpho will need to find a way to make these deposits sticky if incentives dry up.

Schedule a call with our analyst team at DefiLlama Research for more market insights and to explore our market intelligence tools.

Traders and analysts can now see how the firms behind a token's liquidity actually perform, from inside the platform they already use every day.

Bitget’s tokenized equities products feature some of the tightest spreads and deepest liquidity in the market, which aligns with the strong trading activity observed since launch.

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